The World Cup: History and Predictions

By Sam Smith

Hundreds of thousands of people flood the country. In cities, streets are packed, the hotels are all booked, the airport is unusable. There is noise constantly; nobody sleeps. Fires and smoke bombs are everywhere; some are safe and controlled, while others spin wildly to a level on-par with destruction and chaos. 

A thousand miles away, an entire town surrounds just one crackling television. They are united by one event, one team, one nationality. Everyone laughs, cheers, and cries together. 

Although the two scenarios sound like polar opposites, they are both reflections of the same event. Soccer’s World Cup, the competition that attracts just under half the world’s population, has begun. 

The World Cup trophy. Photo credit: Ulf Dietrich via Wikimedia Commons.

Occurring just once every four years, the World Cup is the most highly anticipated tournament in all of soccer. The last World Cup that took place in 2018 in Russia had a whopping 3.57 billion viewers, and it was the second-most viewed event in history, second to only the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games (4.7 billion viewers). Such a significant following from every corner of the world makes the World Cup a truly international event.

Before the World Cup started in its current form in 1930, the most popular international soccer event was the tournament that was incorporated into the summer Olympic Games. However, as club teams participating in national leagues began to expand and move towards a more professional approach (such as the English Football League First Division, now called the Premier League, and the Spanish La Liga), international soccer did the same. The new professional approach to the game didn’t align with the goals of the Olympic Games, and thus the international soccer governing organization, FIFA (Federation Internationale de Football Association), proposed plans for a new tournament outside of the domain of the Olympics, the World Cup, officially releasing the plans for the tournament on May 26, 1928

There had already been a few unofficial international soccer events in the late 1800s. However, there were only a handful of international teams to participate, and the teams were made up of non-professional players, since the Olympics didn’t allow paid athletes to participate. The new proposal called for a more sophisticated tournament consisting of 13 teams, all of which would attend via invitation, split into four groups. The teams in each group would play in a round-robin fashion, with the winners of each group advancing to the knockout rounds, starting in the semi-finals. 

The final product was produced in 1930 when the first official World Cup was held in Uruguay. One of the most scrutinized processes FIFA oversees, the selection of the hosting country for the World Cup, began during the FIFA convention in 1928, when the plans for the tournament were arranged. Hungary, Italy, Spain, Sweden, and the Netherlands all jockeyed for the privilege to host, but the honor was awarded to the small South American country sandwiched between Brazil and Argentina.

1930: The 1930 Uruguay football team, winners of the first World Cup competition. Photo credit: Keystone/Getty Images.

Uruguay was celebrating the 100th anniversary of declaring independence from Spain that year, and the sport of soccer was wildly popular in the country due to recent successes, with the national team winning two Olympic gold medals in 1924 and 1928. More importantly, however, Uruguay worked out a deal where they would cover nearly all of the expenses for FIFA, including travel and accommodation for the participants. In return, Uruguay’s government would collect a percentage of the proceeds to help cover some of the expenses. 

The decision of where to host the World Cup has been a process that has always been under scrutiny, and the history of the decision is filled with controversies, disputes, and accusations of corruption. The process has evolved over the years to become what it is today: an exhaustive ballot system held by the FIFA congress. An exhaustive ballot system is a voting system where voters submit one vote for a candidate country, and if there is no majority winner, the candidate with the least amount of votes is eliminated, and a new round of voting begins. The process continues with rounds of voting until a candidate receives the majority of the votes, which marks that candidate as winner. 

From 1930 to 2002, to avoid feuds, FIFA alternated awarding the honor of hosting the World Cup between Europe and the Americas, since those have historically been the centers of soccer success and prestige. However, in 2002, when it was apparent that the game had become far more global, it would be advantageous to both FIFA and the fans to open up the opportunity to host the world. This led to the most recent format of choosing a host country, as well as an increased amount of competition between host country candidates, which has led to more disputes, and unfortunately, more corruption.

One recent major case of corruption was discovered in 2015, five years after the 2010 World Cup. The host country had been South Africa, but investigations uncovered that bidders representing South Africa had paid $10 million US dollars (USD) in bribes to former FIFA Vice President Jack Warner, former FIFA executive Chuck Blazer, and other high-ranking FIFA executives to secure South Africa as the host country when South Africa had not won the voting process. It was later disclosed that Morocco had won the majority of votes.

Lusail Stadium in Qatar, where the World Cup finals will be played. Photo credit: FIFA.

Just recently, in 2021, two more investigations of bribery and corruption for the right to host the World Cup were brought to light after a decade of inquiry and suspicion. The countries in question were Russia, which hosted the 2018 World Cup, and 2022 host Qatar. Russian representatives paid $5 million USD to, again, former FIFA Vice President Jack Warner, and investigations into Qatar’s representatives’ bribes are still ongoing. Qatar has denied the allegations of improper methods; however, two voters were kicked off the committee after video footage was leaked of the officials discussing plans to sell their votes. On top of the bribery, FIFA has been ridiculed for its decision to vote Qatar as the host country due to a lack of attention to human rights and working conditions in the country. International activists point to the mistreatment of migrant workers in their pay and their recruitment fees, as well as their treatment of migrant workers, as their deaths are never investigated, and they don’t have access to the benefits of native workers. Along with these discrepancies, Qatar has anti-gay, lesbian, and LGBTQ+ laws and restrictions. Finally, the international community points to discrimination against women in Qatar, which is still accepted and extremely common. FIFA has reviewed all of these criticisms, but no action has been taken regarding the future of hosting the World Cup in countries with questionable human rights records.

So why is it so desirable to host the World Cup? With so much competition and corruption, one would think that the benefits of hosting would be plentiful and desirable. This is partially correct. Tourism and the economy are the primary reasons hosting the World Cup has become a staple of success in international sports. 

The main appeal to hosting the event is that not only will millions of tourists and fans be engulfing the country, providing money, local jobs, and publicity, but also that the host country will be on the vast majority of televisions and news sources in the world. The World Cup thrusts the host country right to the center of international news, usually in a favorable light. This gives the opportunity to show off the country, thus spreading an image of that host country as a place of entertainment, sport, and natural beauty. With all of these factors, it is not surprising that, on average, a host country experiences an 8% increase in tourism after hosting a World Cup.

With an expected increase in tourism and publicity, the host country’s government has to pour money into infrastructure to maximize both the revenue and the appeal of the event and the country as a whole. In order to host a World Cup, FIFA requires the host country to have a minimum of twelve stadiums with a capacity between 40,000-80,000 people. There are also requirements for training and housing facilities for every team in attendance. There are additional requirements for the vicinity of airports, ground transportation, and accommodations for referees and foreign fans.

All of these requirements, along with the desire to put forth the best image possible, lead to massive investments by the host country’s government. In 2010, South Africa spent approximately $4 billion USD on World Cup preparations. In 2014, Brazil spent about $15 billion USD. Russia spent approximately $14 billion USD, which created about 220,000 new jobs. This year, Qatar is expected to have spent an unprecedented $220 billion dollars. Qatar had none of the required stadiums or infrastructure when they won their bid, so they had to build from scratch. This is by far the most expensive World Cup up to date, and the economic impacts of the influx of money will surely be scrutinized in the years to come.

The 2022 World Cup is expected to be the most viewed one yet, with an expected record-breaking five billion people worldwide tuning in. The increase in fans is due to the storylines of the actual teams and players entering into the tournament. Two of the most significant of these drawing more supporters were the youthful and ambitious USA team, and, more significantly, likely the final World Cup for soccer superstars Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo.

US men’s soccer suffered their most embarrassing year in 2017 when they lost to the tiny island country of Trinidad and Tobago in their final World Cup qualifying match. The loss knocked the United States out of the 2018 World Cup. This setback was nothing short of a national failure for the men’s team, and the program appeared in shambles. However, the turnaround within the four years was remarkable. 

With the emergence of talented and exciting American players, expectations for the national team have soared. So did individual performances. In January 2019, 23-year-old Christian Pulisic was bought by Chelsea Football Club, one of the largest and most successful clubs in England, for an enormous price tag of 73 million USD, making him the most expensive American player ever. Weston McKennie, another 23-year-old, signed with Italian superpower Juventus, in March 2021. 19-year-old Gio Ryena was signed by Borussia Dortmund, a prestigious German club, in 2019, and is one of the finalists for the Golden Boy Award. Along with other notable names, such as Sergino Dest, Tyler Adams, Brendan Aaronson, and Yunus Musah, the young American squad had hoped to put on a show in Qatar. 

23-year-old Christian Pulisic, Captain of the USA Men’s Soccer Team. Photo Credit: @cmpulisic via Instagram.

Placed in Group B with England, Iran, and Wales, the United States faced an interesting path to the knockout stages. Usually, the World Cup has a “Group of Death,” a term used for the most competitive group in the competition. This year, there seemed to be no true Group of Death. However, Group B’s teams had the highest combined FIFA rankings of all the groups. England was the most likely to win the group, while many predicted a close matchup between the USA and Wales, which resulted in a 1-1 draw on Nov. 21. This being said, the England vs. USA group stage matchup offered one of the most competitive matchups in the group stages, and the US was looking at this as an opportunity to make a statement against a well-seasoned English team. Along with this, there is always an extra source of competitiveness between these two teams, and fans are always itching to prove their team is the superior English-speaking program. Soccer fan and member of the Collegiate Varsity soccer team Grant Beohm (‘23) said, before the match took place during Thanksgiving break, that “I’m looking forward to England vs USA in the group stages, because I don’t really care how the US does in the tournament, as long as they win that game.” Their group stage game ended in a tie, 0-0, on Nov. 25. 

However interesting and exciting the USA looked this year, the storyline on every soccer fan’s mind has been the mystery surrounding the futures of Ronaldo and Messi. Both players are nearing the end of their careers, as Ronaldo (age 37) and Messi (age 35) continue to grow older as their physical ability diminishes. The most iconic player rivalry in soccer history, between two players widely regarded as the best players to ever play the sport, is coming to an end, and this World Cup is very likely the last time both will play in the competition.

Cristiano Ronaldo (left) and Lionel Messi (right) before an International friendly in 2011. Photo Credit: Fanny Shertzer via Wikipedia.

Neither Ronaldo nor Messi has ever won the World Cup. The closest either got was when Messi led Argentina to the finals in 2014, where they played Germany and lost 1-0 on a goal from former German star Mario Gotze in the 113th minute of the game, 23 minutes into extra time. In this World Cup, although neither Ronaldo nor Messi had favorable odds, both were certainly looking to add this piece of hardware to their trophy cabinets, a final triumph to add to their list of many. Perhaps, if one of them were to win it, that would finish the ongoing debate of which of the two is the greatest player of all time. “The most exciting game would be if Argentina and Portugal play,” said Beohm before the tournament began, alluding to the fact that this would be an epic and historical showdown between the most dominant players to ever play.

Despite the storylines, the reality remains that the USA did not make it past the round of 16, and Ronaldo will not win a World Cup. The US lost 3-1 to the Netherlands in the round of 16 on Dec. 3, and Portugal was knocked out of the tournament by Morocco on Dec. 10 in a quarterfinal game. However, this year presented some intriguing teams, and anything is possible.

Before the tournament began, Rohan Agarwal (‘23) said he had “Brazil winning it all.” Sports betting shows that Agarwal made a rather popular choice with this prediction, as the odds for this year’s winner of the World Cup showed Brazil as a 4-1 favorite, with +400 odds to win it, before the Cup started. Brazil also sat at the top of FIFA’s men’s rankings, with 1841.3 points. With a both talented and experienced squad, including household names such as Casemiro, Dani Alves, Thiago Silva, Fabhino, Allison, Ederson, and, most notably, Neymar da Silva Santos Junior, this Brazil team looked as promising as ever. Agarwal backed up his predictions, stating “Neymar is going out with a bang,” alluding to the fact that yet another star may be playing in his last World Cup. Varsity soccer player Porter Vaughan (‘23) also had Brazil winning it all, saying, “I think they have the most complete team, with experience in the back and crazy talent up top.” He agreed with Agarwal, saying, “I think Neymar wins his last dance.” Unfortunately for Agarwal, Vaughan, and the Brazilian fans, Brazil was knocked out of the Cup by Croatia in a quarterfinal game on Dec. 9, with Croatia winning on tie-breaking penalty kicks (1-1 (4-2)). 

Team Brazil. Photo credit: Кирилл Венедиктов via Wikimedia Commons.

Beohm is taking a rather unpopular pick to win it all: Argentina. “Argentina will win, because it seems destined for Messi to win in his last tournament, they won the Copa America, and Argentina is in good form right now.” Although backed partly by a belief in destiny, Beohm presents an interesting point, in that Argentina could surprise loads of people who previously wrote them off, as they had been on an absolute tear before the cup, winning 36 straight games. Notably, the record for the longest winning streak in international soccer is held by Italy, with 37 games,

This year’s opening match on Nov. 20 featured Qatar vs. Ecuador. Now, the world is watching the madness of the tournament unfold. The final will take place on Sunday, December 18, and only then will the winner of the most prestigious tournament of the most popular sport in the world be determined.  

Featured image credit: CBS Sports.

About the author

Sam is a member of the class of 2023.